New US sanctions bill on Russia puts India's Modi in a bind

New US sanctions bill on Russia places Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a delicate energy policy bind, forcing choices that could ripple through fuel prices and domestic politics. While New Delhi has moved to reduce reliance on Moscow, it has kept Russian crude in its mix because of price discounts and reliable supply, a factor especially important as India seeks to keep energy costs in check for voters. A potential provision in the forthcoming US sanctions package could broaden penalties on Russian oil buyers or impose tariffs that effectively raise prices at the pump. Modi's government faces the risk that cutting imports to dodge penalties could push petrol and diesel prices higher ahead of important regional elections and trigger political headwinds. Conversely, maintaining heavy purchases of discounted Russian crude could draw secondary penalties on banks and traders and complicate ties with Western partners pressing for tougher Moscow action. New Delhi has pursued a multi vector energy strategy that includes expanding domestic refining capacity, diversifying supplier sources including the Middle East and Africa, and seeking faster adoption of energy alternatives. Officials say any policy shift must balance affordability, energy security and strategic partnerships with the United States and its allies while preserving growth momentum. The outcome will depend on US congressional action and how quickly India can pivot without triggering disruptive price shocks for consumers.